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Protecting against cyber threats is similar to the age-old wisdom that proactive measures outweigh reactive responses. The world of cybersecurity is constantly evolving, rendering passive defenses increasingly ineffective.

Recent years have seen a surge in cybercrime, with illicit profits projected to skyrocket to $10.5 trillion by 2025, surpassing the GDP of many nations. Criminal enterprises are becoming more sophisticated, and the frequency of attacks is alarming, occurring every 39 seconds. It's obvious that businesses must shift their focus from mere cybersecurity to building cyber resilience.

At the forefront of this shift is threat modeling, a structured approach to assessing cyber threats. This proactive methodology involves mapping out potential threat scenarios to identify vulnerabilities before they're exploited.

While traditionally rooted in software development, threat modeling has evolved into a comprehensive risk management strategy, evaluating individual systems and prioritizing threats to mitigate potential harm to the organization.
Purpose of Threat Modeling
At its core, threat modeling involves:
Representing the system under scrutinyUnderstanding the goals, methods, and tactics of potential threat actors
Cataloging potential threats, risks, and vulnerabilities
Additionally, threat modeling frameworks aid in contextualizing identified risks and devising mitigation tactics. They determine IT investments and guide the deployment of cybersecurity controls.

Choosing the right framework depends on factors such as security needs, compliance requirements, risk profile, system design, and industry sector. While no single framework fits all, five methodologies are commonly employed, offering flexibility in tailoring approaches to individual organizational needs.
Popular Approaches to Threat Modeling
OCTAVE: Developed with a cybersecurity focus, Operationally Critical Threat, Asset, and Vulnerability Evaluation (OCTAVE) centers on organizational and operational risks. It streamlines documentation, enhances asset definition, and integrates threat models into overall security strategies, making it ideal for promoting risk awareness.

STRIDE: Introduced by Microsoft in 1999, STRIDE (Spoofing, Tampering, Repudiation, Information Disclosure, Denial of Service, and Elevation of Privilege) focuses on aspects of development and design. Evolving continuously, it remains a stalwart in threat modeling, adapting to evolving threat landscapes.

MITRE ATT&CK: Based on real-world observations, MITRE ATT&CK serves as both a knowledge repository and a threat model. Beyond threat modeling, it offers frameworks for penetration testing, cybersecurity, and defense development, primarily focusing on cyberattack lifecycles.

Trike: Initially crafted for security audits, Trike has evolved into a versatile threat modeling tool, integrating risk management and assessments. Emphasizing the establishment of risk appetite, it defines and maps existing systems and threat landscapes.

VAST: Conceived to address the limitations of existing techniques, Visual, Agile, and Simple Threat Modeling (VAST) accommodates diverse organizational security concerns. Tailored for agile development, scalability, and automation, VAST models threats from both application and operational perspectives.

PASTA: The Process for Attack Simulation and Threat Analysis (PASTA) outlines a seven-step method for system evaluation from an attacker's viewpoint. By amalgamating this approach with comprehensive risk assessment and business impact analysis, PASTA fosters a deeper understanding of threat actors while ensuring alignment with business objectives.
Understanding the Cyberattack Lifecycle Model
Exploring the stages of a cyberattack reveals the intricate progression of threat actors as they infiltrate and manipulate systems.
Reconnaissance: Initial information gathering and probing for vulnerabilities.Resource gathering: Accumulating necessary tools and data for exploitation.Initial access: Initiating entry into the targeted ecosystem.Execution: Implementing malicious code to compromise systems.Persistence: Sustaining unauthorized access while avoiding detection.Privilege escalation: Elevating permissions to maximize impact.Defense evasion: Disabling or circumventing security measures to maintain control.Credential theft: Acquiring and exploiting user account credentials.Discovery: Identifying additional entry points within the network.Lateral movement: Progressing through interconnected systems and accounts.Command and control: Establishing centralized control over compromised systems.Data collection: Gathering sensitive information for illicit purposes.Exfiltration: Transferring stolen data out of the compromised environment.Impact: Inflicting visible damage and requiring extensive remediation efforts by the targeted organization.
The Benefits of Threat Modeling in Industrial Cybersecurity
Threat modeling plays a crucial role in industrial cybersecurity by helping identify and mitigate potential risks to critical infrastructure. Here's why it's beneficial:

Risk assessment: Threat modeling allows industrial facilities to assess potential cybersecurity risks specific to their operations. By identifying vulnerabilities in systems and processes, organizations can prioritize resources and efforts to address the most critical threats.

Proactive defense: Rather than waiting for a cyber attack to occur, threat modeling enables proactive defense measures. By anticipating potential threats and vulnerabilities, industrial facilities can implement preventive measures to mitigate risks before they escalate into full-scale attacks.

Compliance requirements: Many industries are subject to regulatory requirements concerning cybersecurity measures. Threat modeling helps organizations align with these regulations by identifying gaps in security protocols and implementing the necessary controls to ensure compliance.
Asset protection: Industrial facilities rely heavily on critical infrastructure and assets to maintain operations. Threat modeling helps protect these assets by identifying potential vulnerabilities that could lead to disruption or damage if exploited by malicious actors.

Business continuity: Cyber attacks on industrial systems can have significant impacts on operations, leading to downtime, loss of revenue, and reputational damage. Threat modeling helps ensure business continuity by proactively identifying and addressing vulnerabilities that could disrupt operations.

Threat modeling in industrial cybersecurity is beneficial because it enables organizations to assess risks, implement proactive defense measures, comply with regulatory requirements, protect critical assets, and ensure business continuity in the face of cyber threats.

In conclusion, threat modeling plays a vital role in enhancing the cybersecurity posture of industrial facilities. By proactively identifying and mitigating potential risks and vulnerabilities, organizations can safeguard critical infrastructure, ensure compliance with regulations, and maintain business continuity.

As threats to industrial systems continue to evolve, it's essential for organizations to prioritize cybersecurity measures through effective threat modeling practices.

If you're looking to strengthen your industrial cybersecurity defenses, consider partnering with Sectrio. With our expertise in threat modeling and cybersecurity solutions tailored for industrial environments, we can help you strengthen your defenses and protect your critical assets. Contact Sectrio today to learn more and take proactive steps towards securing your industrial systems.